The United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced its departure from OPEC on May 1, 2026. This move significantly alters the dynamics of global oil production. It also highlights escalating tensions within the cartel.
The UAE has been an OPEC member since 1967. Over the years, it has clashed with Saudi Arabia over OPEC production quotas. The last member to withdraw from OPEC was Angola in 2024.
Currently, the UAE produces approximately 3.2 to 3.6 million barrels per day under existing quotas. However, it holds spare capacity of nearly 4.8 million barrels per day. The UAE plans to increase its output toward 5 million barrels per day by next year.
The exit is perceived as a setback for Saudi Arabia’s influence within OPEC. After the UAE’s departure, OPEC will have only 11 remaining members. This change underscores ongoing tensions regarding production quotas among member countries.
The UAE has invested around US$150 billion to expand its oil production capacity. This investment reflects its strategy for energy independence and a more autonomous foreign policy. The country can balance its budget at lower oil prices than Saudi Arabia, which requires higher prices to fund government spending.
Experts noted that losing a member with substantial capacity like the UAE affects OPEC’s collective strength. Jorge Leon stated that “losing a member with 4.8 million barrels per day of capacity, and the ambition to produce more, takes a real tool out of the group’s hands.”
Suhail Al Mazrouei emphasized that “the world needs more energy” and indicated that the UAE seeks to operate without constraints imposed by group decisions.
The ties binding OPEC members together have loosened significantly, according to analysts. This situation may lead to further shifts in global oil supply dynamics as countries pursue independent strategies.
